Steve McClaren's 3-5-2 plan
England's 0-0 draw with Macedonia rings the alarm bells
Before England's dreary 0-0 draw at home to Macedonia on Saturday, there were rumours that England were going to switch to the unfashionable formation of 3-5-2.
This was pretty remarkable as England are a dyed-in-the-wool 4-4-2 team although the 3-5-2 issue has been raised periodically during Sven Goran Eriksson's regime as a potential answer to the Frank Lampard/Steven Gerrard problem in central midfield.
The 3-5-2 had a brief upsurge in popularity in England about a decade ago -- Roy Evans's Liverpool gave it a go before he got sacked and Glenn Hoddle tried it out with England in the late nineties. Apart from that, three centre backs is seen as a resolutely foreign formation that the English can't quite get to grips with.
Even outside of England the formation has fallen out of favour everywhere but Mexico. The last World Cup winning side to play this way was Luiz Felipe Scolari's Brazil in 2002 and that was a pragmatic move by the coach to get the best from his squad and not a deeply held belief in the formation -- Big Phil's Portuguese sides have always played with four at the back.
So why are England turning to this set up for the qualifier in Zagreb on Wednesday? Fingers have pointed to England manager Steve McClaren's assistant (and former England manager himself) Terry Venables, recognised as one of the more daring of English football thinkers.
Frankly, it's more likely desperation on McClaren's part not to be seen as a dithering Eriksson-clone in the light of the bloodless effort by his side at Old Trafford on Saturday. The switch to 3-5-2 was mentioned before the Macedonia game but when rumours that it was the players who wanted the change arose, McClaren swiftly scotched the stories by saying that it was not being considered and he was in charge, not the players.
Midfield is also considered the strength of the national side and the lack of quality left-sided players in the squad means that their numbers are halved from the two needed to play in 4-4-2 to just the one in the 3-5-2.
With Ashley Cole taking up the left wing-back position, the disappointing McClaren protege Stewart Downing can be "rested" from left midfield and Gary Neville will presumably patrol the right. This does mean you have to play three centre-backs which may cause problems for this England squad especially as Ledley King has returned to Spurs injured and Rio Ferdinand missed the Croatia match through a back spasm. Ferdinand is expected to recover in time to take King's place next to John Terry and be joined by Liverpool's Jamie Carragher.
The three central midfielders will no doubt include Frank Lampard and Michael Carrick with early press reports mentioning Newcastle's Scott Parker as the favourite to be the third man. Gerrard is banned for this match -- a bit of a blow as the three central midfielders' route was initially mentioned as a way to get the best out of both Lampard and Gerrard -- something that has never happened for the Three Lions in a 4-4-2.
Up front, Peter Crouch and Wayne Rooney should continue together, with the nation hoping the Manchester United man can refind his magic touch and emulate his performance against the Croatians the last time they met when he scored two in a 4-2 victory at Euro 2004.
If the formation change does happen, it is a massive risk. The last time England attempted a switch from their tradition, it resulted in a 1-0 loss away at Northern Ireland with David Beckham pilloried for his apparent influence in being allowed to play centrally as a "quarter back".
Although modern footballers are required to be a flexible lot, no one could claim the Premiership is a haven for lovers of tactical nuance. Apart from the occasional shift to a 4-5-1 in tricky away games at the big clubs, most sides play a rigid 4-4-2 -- unless a goal is needed in the last five minutes and a big lad from the back is thrown forward to augment the attack.
With no history of man-marking (or sweepers) in the English game, it will mean that the three centre-halves will mark zonally and the wing backs must push forward to provide the width. Unfortunately, this could cause some confusion between the back three not knowing when to move to the ball or to stick with a man. Expect much shuffling across the pitch as the back three try to cover balls past the wing backs stranded too far forward.
Croatia are strong down the flanks (watch out for the right sided Dario Srna) and that could force the wing backs to play too conservatively and not support the midfield -- knowing when to attack and when to defend is a key skill for the wing back position. Too deep and midfield is outnumbered, too far forward and the defence suffers.
Quite how the English players will adapt to playing an entirely unfamiliar formation away at a side unbeaten at home for fourteen years (since independence from Yugoslavia in 1992) remains to be seen. Not especially well, in all likelihood.
Astonishingly, British bookmakers make England favourites to win the game (even more astonishingly, they make England favourites to win Euro 2008!).
Any non-Englishmen should take advantage of the 2/1 offered on Croatia to win the match and a few non-patriotic Englishmen should do the same.
I can't bring myself to bet against Blighty, so will not be partaking.
The fact that I'm currently in the US and am not allowed to use the online bookies I normally use is completely unrelated. Honest.
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