Germany v Portugal Preview
World Cup third-place play-off, Stuttgart, Saturday, 8 July, Kick-off: 2000 BST
Third-place play-offs must be the least loved and least relevant matches in football (the old Anglo-Italian Cup excepted).
Both sides will be deflated from their failure in the semi-finals and can't really fancy another 90 minutes (or more) in the pursuit of a bronze medal.
There's also the little issue of what I call: THE CURSE OF THE THIRD-PLACE PLAY-OFF WINNERS! MWUH-HUH-HUH-HUH! (Cue thunder and lightning)
There's a strange pattern involving the European winners of this match and their subsequent performance in qualifying for the European Championships -- the next big tournament for them after the World Cup. Let me illustrate:
World Cup Spain 1982 -- third place: Poland --
failed to qualify for Euro Champs in France 1984
World Cup Mexico 1986 -- third place: France --
failed to qualify for Euro Champs in Germany 1988
World Cup Italy 1990 -- third place: Italy --
failed to qualify for Euro Champs in Sweden 1992
World Cup USA 1994 -- third place: Sweden --
failed to qualify for Euro Champs in England 1996
World Cup France 1998 -- third place: Croatia --
failed to qualify for Euro Champs in Belgium/Holland 2000
World Cup Japan/Korea 2002 -- third place: Turkey --
failed to qualify for Euro Champs in Portugal 2004
That really is quite an extraordinary record and one hard to explain. Maybe the side that makes third place in the World Cup lose focus when it comes to the less glamorous task of travelling the length and breadth of the continent to grind out draws in away qualifiers?
Maybe the squad is full of players who have reached their peak and decide to call it a day after the high point of a reasonable successful World Cup?
Possibly it's the sheer number of qualifying matches that need to be played against decent teams, that makes qualifying for World Cup and Euro Champs tough (especially since the independence of former Soviet and Yugoslavian states) -- Euro 2004 winners Greece didn't qualify for Germany 2006; nor did Denmark, Turkey, Ireland, or Russia amongst others.
Even so, Germany have a reasonably easy task to qualify for Switzerland/Austria 2008 -- their main rivals will be Ireland and the Czech Republic for top spot or the second place -- both of which will guarantee a place in Euro 2008 finals as there are no play-offs for the runner-up in the groups this time round.
Portugal have a far tougher proposition having being placed with Belgium, Poland and Serbia in their eight team group.
So who will be the unlucky winner this evening?
Probably Germany, even without Michael Ballack. Thorsten Frings should return from his suspension and permanently scowling Ollie Kahn gets a run-out in goal. More worryingly for German fans is the switch in defence which sees Marcell Jansen and useless new Middlesbrough signing Robert Huth get a chance.
Portugal are not so charitable and the only changes will be in defence where right back Miguel is injured and will be replaced by Paulo Ferreira and Porto's Ricardo Costa will take the place of the suspended Ricardo Carvalho at centre back.
Despite the changes, Germany should be good enough to rap the game up in 90 minutes -- even with the fearsome Luiz Felipe Scolari on the touchline bellowing and waving his arms around, you wonder just how motivated Portugal will be to give it their all.
Having said that, the recent German record against Portugal is not good -- they last beat them in 1996 and last time out they lost 3-0 to a virtual Portugal B team at the Euro Champs in 2000.
But with the backing of the home crowd, Germany should get the result the hosts want and also start to think about their holidays in the summer of 2008.
