World Cup Preview 1

© Simon Melville

Causing some fuss in Germany this summer, Wikimedia Commons

Running the rule over the favourites – Germany, Brazil, Argentina, France, England, Holland and Spain.

The fun starts in Munich on Friday where the hosts Germany take on Costa Rica in the opening match and it should be a nice gentle opener for the Germans. Costa Rica have decent players and are at their second consecutive World Cup for the first time but shouldn't be any match for Jurgen Klinsmann's team.

Despite a couple of unusual selections in his squad (out goes previously ever-present striker Kevin Kuranyi, in comes oft-injured centre back Jens Nowotny), some dodgy friendly results (4-1 loss to Italy, 2-2 home draw to Japan) and much sniping from former colleagues over Klinsmann's decision to base himself at his California home, the team look like gelling nicely in attack and have a reasonably easy group.

Although main centre forward Miroslav Klose still looks a donkey at international level, he provides a valuable physical foil to the nippier striking options of Lukas 'Prinz' Podolski and Oliver Neuville while Bayern Munich's Bastian 'Basti Fantasti' Schweinsteiger is developing into a midfielder of genuine international class to complement the mighty Michael Ballack.

Their defence is a different matter - both full backs Arne Friedrich and Phillip Lahm are happier going forward then defending - but if just one other player apart from Ballack can get his shooting boots on, you can expect a semi-final appearance.

Brazil finished their build-up with a pleasant 4-0 afternoon stroll against New Zealand in Geneva on Sunday. For the first 45 minutes, las canarinhas didn't look too concerned over their laboured performance. They were much better after the break but had a few uncomfortable moments when the Kiwis managed to get some crosses in.

With all the talk of Brazil being heavy favourites, it's easy to forget that only once has a non-European team won a European-based World Cup (the Brazilians themselves in Sweden 1958) and the South Americans seem not to perform when they are really fancied to win.

Before the Carlos Alberto Parreira-coached side won USA '94, the Brazilians hadn't won a World Cup for nearly 25 years. Despite breaking that quarter of a century drought, that team was criticised for playing functional football and Parreira this time is keen to add an extra element of fantasy to their play.

Hence the 'Magic Quartet' of Ronaldinho and Kaka playing behind Ronaldo and Adriano. The only time this tactic has come truly unstuck was a 3-1 defeat in Argentina during the South American qualifiers although Brazil took revenge by defeating the Argies 4-1 in the final of the Confederations Cup last summer.

Any unconvincing performances in the group stage though, could see Parreira re-jigging the side with one of the four missing-out for a midfielder. This is certainly more likely than a mooted 'Magic Quintet' that would somehow see Robinho shoe-horned into the side. And don't expect Ronaldinho to hit the same heights as he does for Barcelona - Brazilians say he reserves his best for the Catalans, while more impartial observers would note he has to share the attacking spotlight with a wider range of players than he does for his club.

As usual, fellow South Americans Argentina are strongly fancied although there is an element of doubt within the squad due to an injury to superkid Leo Messi, playmaker Juan Roman Riquelme's poor end to the season and a couple of surprising omissions from Jose Pekerman's squad (no Samuel or Zanetti).

Despite being drawn in a tough group along with the Netherlands, Ivory Coast and Serbia, Argentina should progress with an array of talent at their disposal that only Brazil can rival. For those who missed the football tournament at the Athens Olympics, this will be the competition Carlos Tevez announces himself on a truly international stage.

The other contenders are the usual suspects from Europe. On the face of it, Italy lack their traditional strong defence but have more attacking options available to them than usual. They may lack first-rate back-up to Alessandro Nesta and Fabio Cannavaro at centre back but these two experienced campaigners will still be a tough proposition for any front line.

Attacking options are plentiful but Alberto Gilardino and Vincenzo Iaquinta have had disappointing campaigns at their clubs, Luca Toni has yet to replicate at international level the form that saw him plunder 30 goals in Serie A and Francesco Totti desperately needs a good tournament to match his performance at Euro 2000. Expect coach Marcello Lippi to rely heavily on veteran duo Alex Del Piero and Pippo Inzaghi throughout the tournament.

Fans of France will be wondering which side of their Jekyll and Hyde team turns up - the victorious World Cup 1998/Euro 2000 version or miserable World Cup 2002/Euro 2004 flops? Qualification went down to the wire with some uninspired performances and recent friendlies haven't been much better. Can Zinedine Zidane and Theirry Henry truly click in internationals together? Who is the best partner for Henry up front? Will Patrick Vieira regain his form? How can Raymond Domenech justify picking Fabien Barthez over Lyon's brilliant Gregory Coupet in goal? We may have to wait until the knock-out stages to get some definite answers to those questions as Group G (Switzerland, Togo and South Korea) should hold little fear for Les Bleus.

England's chances seem to hinge on Wayne Rooney's foot injury. With the bullish striker in the team, the sky is the limit for Sven Goran Eriksson's team. Without him, much depends on whether Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard can finally have a decent game for England together in the same midfield. If the first match against Paraguay is anything less than a win, expect the doubts over the best formation for a Rooney-less England to resurface.

"Dark Horse" should mean a side outside of the obvious, fancied to do well. In practice, it is used almost exclusively in conjunction with Spain and Holland for every tournament they've qualified for in the last 25 years.

Both these sides are highly entertaining when they get the balance right although Marco Van Basten's Oranje are notably more pragmatic than Dutch sides of the past.

Having ditched the high-profile generation that won a European Cup with Ajax ten years ago (Kluivert, Seedorf, Davids, etc) for largely Dutch-based players, there is a better spirit in the camp than you'd expect from a Holland team. Unfortunately injuries to Rafael Van der Vaart and his understudy Wesley Sneijder have left the midfield short of invention and Feyenoord's Dirk Kuijt looks misused as a right sided attacker in their 4-3-3 formation. Probably uniquely, the Dutch are not too bothered to be drawn in the same group as Argentina as they have only ever lost to them once although the physical Ivory Coast could pull a surprise in their second group game.

The Spanish, like Real Madrid in La Liga, are still in thrall to the waning talents of Raul. Despite scoring his 42nd international goal (in 92 appearances) in Spain's last pre-World Cup friendly against Egypt on Saturday night, the "Angel from Madrid" has been enduring a hellishly unproductive time this season. However, coach Luis Aragones seems intent on including him in the starting XI behind the strike force of Fernando Torres and David Villa.

This may well unbalance a midfield of unrivalled brilliance - perm three or four from the following and you'll see why a misfiring Raul could be a waste of space: Reyes, Iniesta, Xavi, Xabi Alonso, Joaquin, Fabregas as well the prosaic but vital Albelda and Senna. With a goalkeeper of monkey-like agility in Iker Casillas, and a decent if not water-tight defence, you can see why Spain are being tipped as outsiders. But then they always are and never fail to fall short.


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Comments
Jun 7, 2006 6:44 AM
Simon Melville :
What does everyone think is going to happen at the World Cup?

Let me start the ball rolling:

European World Cups are normally won by European teams but is there anyone to rival Brazil?
I have a sneaky suspicion that Germany might go all the way.

Flops: England sans-Rooney are not very impressive.(http://soccer.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1251).I also have a bad feeling for Italy -- they aren't gelling at all.

Surprises: Iran. Trust me. And despite Australia's relative lack of experience they can cause an upset or two. Thank the Lord, England couldn't possibly meet them until the semi-final stage.

Golden Boot: David Villa for Spain. A weak group should allow him to fill his boots.

Team to laugh at: Saudi Arabia -- despite being a giant of the Asia region they always get the yips at the Finals (1994 excepted). They may not get a thrashing like the 8-0 humiliation of Germany from last time but they won't win a game. Or score. Al-Deayea will also be in line for worst goalie -- his acrobatic shot-stopping is more than let down with woeful positioning.
Jun 7, 2006 8:10 AM
David Fox :
As far as the European teams are concerned, the home factor will help Germany to overcome their recent form. I'm also backing Italy to impress, although for no other reason than - strangely considering what SimonMelville said - I have a good feeling about them.

The big surprise of the tournament is going to be Australia. They've started to sway a few of the doubters already with a gutsy draw in Holland, so don't be surprised when they hack their way into the second round.
http://soccer.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1226

Flops - Brazil. The weight of expectation has a habit of crushing the Seleção. Their most recent limp 4-0 win over a severely weakened (even by our standards) New Zealand team is a bad sign of things to come.

When it's all over - I'm backing England to lift the trophy. Obviously.
Jun 8, 2006 6:35 AM
Guy Incognito :
If I had two ha'pennies, farthings or other antiquated coins to rub together then the Czech Republic would be worth a punt. Highest scorers in the European qualifiers I believe. The Ivory Coast have a few decent players and are well placed to better Cameroon's exploits of yesteryear. I fear the Aussies will be numbingly effective.

Luca Toni is a good shout for the golden boot. But seeing odds of 40-1 for goal-machine/robot (Peter Crouch) is not to be sniffed at. If he starts well in the group stage then Rooney may struggle to get in. If it ain't broke, don't fix it, etc. Maybe Owen would be subbed instead? I'd be surprised if we see Walcott once we hit the knock-out stage. Hasn't shown a lot in the brief appearances he's made so far.
Jun 8, 2006 7:14 AM
Simon Melville :
Will Crouchy score goals? He's on a good run of form at the moment it has to be said. You do wonder whether he has what it takes at the highest level, but some players get lucky.

Would be delightful to see that dance cranked out again.

I'm not sure Sven would have the balls to ever drop Owen. If things are going well then I can't see him risking Rooney from the start -- he may make a substitute appearance if we're really struggling.

Having said that, it seems Sven is now "demob happy" and is taking more risks -- maybe he will be daring.

If Owen picks up a knock we have no-one but Theo to replace him with in the group stages anyway. If we're ever behind in a game, then I can see Theo making an appearance.
Jun 8, 2006 10:56 AM
Phil :
I believe Portugal were top scorers in qualifying - and at 26-1 they're worth a punt.

It'll be a Brazil-Argie final if you ask me. Italy-Argentina in the semis would be interesting, but I fancy the South Americans to sneak through.

I quite fancy Ukraine to do well, and Shevchenko for the goalden boot might not be too far-fetched seeing as he could get a few against Saudi Arabia and Tunisia at the group stages. And if they could top their group and avoid France in the second round...

I can see Germany falling flat at the quarter-final stage against either Argentina or Holland. But... home advantage can never be under-estimated.

I can see Brazil scoring a hat-full at this WC so realistically, it'll be a Brazilian for the goalden boot.
Jun 8, 2006 3:45 PM
James Collier :
The Czechs and Portugal both scored 35 goals in the group stages (with 5 and 12 goals against respectively), but the Czechs then went on to face Norway in the play-off, winning 2-0 on aggregate.

Right, set faces to stun, here are my predictions:

Winners: Argentina. 18 of their squad play in Europe, so I think the 'South Americans in Europe' issue will be negated. They have a decent draw through to the semis, a good crop of established players, plus the promise of Messi.

Germany: I think they may wobble tomorrow in the opener, if not against Poland next week. I think fate will decree England meet them in the second round, likely as a result of the Swedes scoring more goals. England will prevail should they meet, though Germany would edge Sweden but will go no further than the QF. I just can't see their defence being good enough.

Brazil: Bar the Argies, two sides with the nous to give them a shock are Italy and the Czechs, one of whom they are likely to meet in the second stage. I think Brazil might just be found out by one of them.

Surprise package: Until they lost Volanthen, I thought the Swiss might be worth a look. Good in qualifying, with two draws against France, they did the Turks in the play-off. Likely they'll still be solid, but might not have enough poke up front.

Golden Boot: Torres. He'll do a Salenko against the Saudis, who by that point will be on the plane home. What would be funny is if Ukraine do Spain first game, just as Nigeria did in '98, then they choke against Tunisia, making their rout of the Saudis utterly irrelevant. You read it here first.
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